2024 Recession Probability Formula. The black dotted line marks the unconditional probability of transitioning from an expansion into a recession, which is 15.5%. We use the “nber based recession indicators for the united states from the peak through the trough” from fred (federal reserve economic data).
In this graphic, we show the probability of a u.s. Economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter.
However, investors can make the most of a difficult situation by knowing which risk factors to watch and how to position their portfolios to optimize their performance if a recession is looming in.
We Estimated That The Probability Of A Recession In 2024 Was Roughly 30%, With A Range Of 15% To 60%, While We Estimated That The Market Was Pricing In A Recession Probability Of Roughly 20%.
This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or “term spread,” to calculate the probability of a recession in the united states twelve months ahead.
2024 Recession Probability Formula Images References :
In Depth View Into Us Recession Probability Including Historical Data From 1960 To 2025, Charts And Stats.
In following months, the model's recession forecast went on to rise above an 80% probability, which would apply for the months between july 2023 and july 2024.
We Estimated That The Probability Of A Recession In 2024 Was Roughly 30%, With A Range Of 15% To 60%, While We Estimated That The Market Was Pricing In A Recession Probability Of Roughly 20%.